Nobody had to tell me the UMICH consumer confidence numbers. Down sharply, right? I could have told you yesterday. The music instruments business has been almost a perfect microcosm of the CC index. When people see even a hint of better times ahead, they're shopping and engaged. They'll buy $100 items. The last month or two sales of everything over $20 went flatline. I've been selling guitar strings (single strings, not sets) to folks who 'found' a guitar somewhere. Dumpster divers. Nobody is looking at merchandise and dreaming. They're here for a specific purpose - get in and get out.

One dollar bills have been the currency of choice. Usually the one dollar notes tend to balance out as I take them in and use them for change and I've only rarely had an excess to take to the bank. Last week I deposited a pile of ones. Nothing else. I've used significantly less credit-card paper supplies. Normal usage is about a roll of paper in two weeks. The current roll is just starting to get low. I last replaced it in June.

If it's any consolation, consumer confidence went up a teeny bit a few days ago. Will it stay that way until the next UMICH report? Who knows... but it won't matter because the report isn't going to tell me anything I don't already know.