Mike Macgirvin
Diary and Other Rantings
Beyond Silicon Valley
   
Friday, Jul 25 2008, 12:10 pm
Jul 23, 2002
So while we're all waiting for the latest market gyrations to

So while we're all waiting for the latest market gyrations to stabilize, let's examine this whole thing a little closer. Upwards of seven trillion dollars in wealth have now evaporated. Where did all the money go? Bzzzt. Wrong answer. The money didn't evaporate. Only the value did. It's like needing toilet paper at 3AM. Only place you can get it is seven-eleven. They can charge whatever they want for it. But they probably aren't going to sell many rolls at $250.00 a roll. So maybe they can get $10 a roll. But if people stop buying at that price they have to bring it down. Maybe $5 a roll. In doing so, have they just lost five dollars? Nope. They bought it for a buck. They're still making four. The only way they lose money is if they buy it for five and are forced to sell it for one. But it's their choice. That's the only time you lose - if you sell for less than you bought it. If you paid too much to begin with, like ten bucks a roll - and you feel you got burned because it isn't worth that much, you're gonna' lose money trying to dump it. So if you have 100 shares of XYZ Corp. for 5 bucks a share, and the stock price plummets to a buck - you haven't lost a thing. You still have 100 shares of XYZ Corp., exactly what you bought. OK, to be fair XYZ Corp. could go bankrupt. But you still have what you bought - 100 shares of stock. It's no longer money, but another piece of paper with a slightly more volatile value than cash. Quit thinking of it as money because you spent the money. It's now just 100 shares of stock that are worth whatever you can sell them for. The only time you actually lose money is a) when you buy it in the first place because you have to pay for it, and b) if you sell it for less than you bought it.

I should also note that you aren't ever forced to sell stock at market price. You can ask whatever you want. You can offer the shares at six bucks and see if anybody bites. Not likely if they can buy it across the street for a buck, but you never know.

The underlying message is that there isn't much sympathy out there for folks who've lost money (including me). It was all personal choice. They decided what price to buy at and what price to sell at. They lost it fair and square. Nobody took it from them.

There might be a little bit of sympathy for those that are just sitting on plummeting values (including me). Doesn't make sense to sell them now. And since I decide what price to sell them at, I choose to wait for better days. I think I can do better than today's price. Might not ever sell them for anything close to what I paid, and heck - it might drop further and take years to get back to today's price. That's the breaks.

And then I have to laugh as I look at the day's (paper) mail. A class action lawsuit of which I'm an eligible plaintiff. Alleging stock fraud. Oh yes, I know the company. I bought some shares. Sold 'em at a huge loss for just about enough to cover the broker's commission. Chuckle. Sure, it was stock fraud. It's an off-shore online gambling empire fercrysakes. They pumped it up. I checked it out. Gambling. Should have cash flow. The only flaw I saw in the business model was that you couldn't really tell where the money went. No mailing address, no board of directors. That kind of thing. I gambled on them and lost. Nah, I'm not gonna' join the suit. I lost it fair and square.

Then I catch up on the online news and find that I'm eligible for a class action suit against my former employers for questionable accounting procedures. Seems they got money in yet another legal action to settle an advertising debt and they counted it as income. Now look - they got money. They counted it as income. End of story. Maybe it was in the wrong category of income, but most businesses I know don't keep separate accounts for money obtained through court action. You have to file it somewhere - pick a place. Other questionable practices were also alleged but that was the worst one. I expect to see floods of class action suits in the mail any day now. The lawyers have gotten in on the feeding frenzy.

I think one of my strengths as a Silicon Valley merchant is being at ease with the tech crowds during lunch time. I'm one of them. Can talk ion implanters and javascript with the best of 'em. Course I'm careful not to use the term cubicle rat very much in their company. But I realized that something wasn't there anymore. Sometime over the past year I ceased to be a geek. Might be just as geeky as ever, but that and nerd no longer define me. Not sure this is good because I wore those badges with honor. It's different. A lifetime ago...

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Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool
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