China wants Taiwan. And why not? China is awakening to its consumer hunger, and where better to get the expertise to run mass consumer production than Taiwan? And oh by the way, doesn’t China really feel like Taiwan belongs to them already? And aren’t the Chinese people beginning to splinter into haves and have-nots, like America 50 years ago?
And who will stop them from taking Taiwan? Anyone besides the U.S is out of the question, and did you hear the thundering silence in the days following the latest demonstration of Chinese military prowess? Either the US government failed to detect the launch, or this is tacit consent from a government that knows it cannot afford to piss off China. The U.S. economy is so dependant on China’s buying of our national debt, and the import of cheap Chinese goods, that if we were to be embargoed by China things would get a lot worse than anyone dreams. This economy would shred in months, weeks, if we were forced to deal with the paper we are printing to fund the War in Iraq. And how aggressive would you want our Navy to be, preventing a Chinese takeover of Taiwan? Probably not as aggressive today as you were last week, given our inability to detect a missile launch!
Ok, how long will it take?
For each manager involved in initial meetings add one month.
For each manager who says "data flow analysis" add another month.
For each unique end-user type add one month.
For each unknown software package to be employed add two months.
For each unknown hardware device add two months.
For each 100 miles between developer and installation add one month.
For each type of communication channel add one month.
If an IBM mainframe shop is involved and you are working on a non-IBM
system add 6 months.
If an IBM mainframe shop is involved and you are working on an IBM
system add 9 months.
Round up to the nearest half-year.
--Brad Sherman
By the way, ALL software projects are done by iterative prototyping.
Some companies call their prototypes "releases", that's all.

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